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Monday 31 August 2015

Climate change: How 'political' is the BBC's decision to end its weather contract with the Met Office? >>> >>> >>> PETITION urging the BBC to reconsider

The news is that the BBC is to end its weather-forecasting contract with the Met Office:
Met Office in the news – BBC weather contract | Met Office News Blog
BBC Radio 5 live - In Short, Bill Giles: "Shattered" by end of BBC's Met Office contract
Met Office 'lost BBC contract over dumbing down rows and weather app' - Telegraph

To what extent has this decision been 'political'?

BBC Pulls Plug On Met Office


1) BBC Pulls Plug On Met Office – The Sunday Times, 24 August 2015 The BBC has ended a partnership with the Met Office dating back more than 90 years by deciding not to renew its contract to provide weather forecasts. The last bulletin presented by the Met Office will be broadcast in October 2016, 94 years after the first, in November 1922. Bill Giles, who led the Met Office’s team of BBC forecasters from 1983 to 2000, was among those in shock at the decision. “It’s a hell of a shame. It’s the end of an era,” he said. –Nicholas Hellen

2) BBC Denies Climate Sceptics Behind Decision To Ditch Met Office – The Independent on Sunday, 23 August 2015 A controversial BBC radio programme that questioned the scientific credentials of the Met Office is unlikely to have influenced the broadcaster’s decision to end its nearly 100-year relationship with Britain’s official weather service, it has been claimed. The BBC announcement came three weeks after a contentious Radio 4 programme, What’s the Point of…?, focused on the Met Office. The programme, presented by a Daily Mail columnist, questioned the accuracy of the long-term forecasts made by the Met Office in its scientific assessments of the risk posed by global warming and climate change. A BBC spokeswoman said: “There is absolutely no link between the programme and the situation we’re in now.”  –Steve Connor

3) Editorial: Met Office Feels Icy Blast Of Competition – Daily Mail, 24 August 2015 In recent years the Met Office has often felt less like a dispassionate provider of weather information and more like a lobbyist for the climate change agenda. It frequently seems more interested in pronouncing on the long-term climatology of rain forests and polar ice-caps than providing the best possible bread-and-butter local forecasts for its clients? Yes, it’s sad that the Met Office has effectively been sacked by the BBC after 93 years but it only has itself to blame.

4) Quentin Letts: I’m Not Surprised The BBC Dumps Climate Change Obsessed Met Office – Daily Mail, 24 August 2015 The Met Office may only have itself and some of its more swivel-eyed defenders to blame. With its hunger for news headlines, it occasionally went further than it should have done in predicting ‘barbecue summers’ and so forth. Sometimes you got the impression its forecasts were being written by the same hand that authored the Book of Genesis and its chapters about Noah’s flood. Gosh, they did love to whip up a storm about a few isobars. But if that is a shame in itself, it’s as nothing to the Met Office’s political lobbying, pushing a green, climate-change agenda with such force it stopped being seen as a dispassionate observer and started to look too much like a political player.

BBC Pulls Plug On Met Office

This has been going on for some time:
The Met office and the BBC- caught cold | Watts Up With That?

A petition has been launched:

Urge the BBC to reconsider its decision not to renew the Met Office contract
The BBC have confirmed that the Met Office will not have their forecasting contract renewed after a partnership dating back over 90 years.
The Met Office are the world's best at forecasting, it's difficult to believe another provider can offer better.   In 2014 the Met Office invested £97m in a 'Super Computer', enabling forecast updates every hour and the ability to provide very high detail weather information for precise geographical areas.  The British public will lose the benefit of much of this investment if this contract is not renewed.
It is worthy of note that the weather 'presenters' appearing on the BBC forecasts are actually employed and trained by the Met Office unlike other channels' presenters who have little understanding of the science behind the forecast.  The U.K. has a unique and changeable weather system and quite simply being based here in the UK ensures a comprehensive knowledge that will be difficult if not impossible for competitors to emulate, (the contract is expected to be awarded to either a Dutch or New Zealand based company).
The loss of this contract places under threat an historic and important part of our national culture, as well as the TV forecasts mentioned The Shipping Forecast which as well as being vital for mariners is also a national treasure and could be directly at threat.
As the British Broadcasting Corporation , you would expect the BBC to support British organisations rather than allowing work to go offshore, 
The petition is to urge the Director General of the BBC, Lord Tony Hall to urgently review and the reverse this decision. 
LETTER TO
BBC
Director-General BBC Lord Tony Hall
The BBC have confirmed that the Met Office will not have their forecasting contract renewed after a partnership dating back over 90 years.

The Met Office are the world's best at forecasting, it's difficult to believe another provider can offer better. In 2014 the Met Office invested £97m in a 'Super Computer', enabling forecast updates every hour and the ability to provide very high detail weather information for precise geographical areas. The British public will lose the benefit of much of this investment if this contract is not renewed.

It is worthy of note that the weather 'presenters' appearing on the BBC forecasts are actually employed and trained by the Met Office unlike other channels presenters who have little understanding of the science behind the forecast. The U.K. has a unique and changeable weather system and quite simply being based here in the UK ensures a comprehensive knowledge that will be difficult if not impossible for competitors to emulate, (the contract is expected to be awarded to either a Dutch or New Zealand based company).

The loss of this contract places under threat an historic and important part of our national culture, as well as the TV forecasts mentioned The Shipping Forecast which as well as being vital for mariners is also a national treasure and could be directly at threat.

As the British Broadcasting Corporation , you would expect the BBC to support British organisations rather than allowing work to go offshore, 

The petition is to urge the Director General of the BBC, Lord Tony Hall to urgently review and the reverse this decision.


















































































































Petition · BBC: Urge the BBC to reconsider its decision not to renew the Met Office contract · Change.org
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'Save Exmouth Seafront' group launched >>> complete the survey by Saturday 5th September

There has been a lot of anxiety over the future of the seafront at Exmouth.

There was the issue of Elizabeth Hall:
Exmouth's Elizabeth Hall demolition and Premier Inn build approved - BBC News
Exmouth or East Berlin? Premier Inn invites you to have your say, tomorrow (Sat 15 Dec) | Sidmouth Independent News
Premier Inn hotel work begins on Exmouth's Elizabeth Hall site - BBC News
Jobs at Premier Inn, Exmouth: think of a number then half it | East Devon Watch











Unnecessary, unwanteddevelopment of the Exmouth Esplanade

There is the issue of the beach huts:
EDDC cabinet set to approve demolishing beach huts at Exmouth, this evening - Claire WrightDespair of Exmouth beach hut owners who'll see huts flogged to highest bidder | Exeter Express and Echo
Futures Forum: The East Devon beach hut story: very much in the news

And now there is the issue of the 'Splash' development on Queen's Drive along Exeter's seafront:

Developer unveils £18m seafront plan

26 July 2015 David Beasley


exmouth seafront

Luxury flats, shops, eateries, a multi-screen cinema and a new Harbour View Café and coastwatch tower could all be built on Exmouth seafront.

East Devon District Council (EDDC) has unveiled £18million plans to develop the nine acres between the old Lifeboat Station and The Maer. EDDC says the draft plans, by Bournemouth-based Morai Capital Investments, will create 175 jobs and boost Exmouth’s economy by £4million a year. The proposals also include an outdoor water splash zone, ‘adventure’ golf and ground-floor restaurant and cafes.

Three apartment blocks are proposed, with flats variously on the first and second floors. Their sale would pay for altering the direction of Queen’s Drive, which would make space for a watersports centre by Grenadier Investments. The sale would also pay for a car park where Exmouth Amusements is now sited. The amusements centre was one of the leisure facilities that EDDC last year said would not have to move. The Journal this week asked district bosses how many flats could be developed as part of the proposals, but a spokesman said the “initial plans” were not final and would “evolve over the coming months through work with the community”. However, the Journal believes the graphics indicate that the largest, ‘S-shaped’ block would be around 140 metres long and 90 metres wide.

Seafront traders have been told they can trade until September, with building work on both the car park and road set to begin soon after.

Cllr Andrew Moulding, chairman of Exmouth Regeneration Board, said: “The proposals are very much in their infancy and there will be more work to do with the community and Moirai to ensure that we can achieve something that works for all ages.”

Martin Barber, chairman of Moirai, said: “The scheme will provide investment, employment and better facilities for the local population. The scheme will be designed in such a way that it will complement the watersports centre [which will be built nearby].”

Exmouth councillor Mark Williamson backed moves to ask residents their views over the summer.

However, Cllr Eileen Wragg, a Lib Dem member of EDDC’s cabinet, said: “I’m concerned about the location of flats in a vulnerable area. Two years ago, we saw storms wash away the ice cream kiosk, which was only metres away. I have lived in Exmouth all my life and I have never seen the water come up that far.”


These plans have now been challenged:


Action group launched to ‘save Exmouth seafront’ from £18m development


By Exeter Express and Echo | Posted: August 31, 2015




‘Save Exmouth Seafront’, has been formed by concerned residents from Exmouth and the surrounding area to oppose East Devon District Council’s regeneration proposals for the seafront.

A new action group has been launched to ‘save’ Exmouth seafront from developers who plan an £18m redevelopment that will see some of the town’s oldest most popular businesses close.

‘Save Exmouth Seafront’, has been formed by concerned residents from Exmouth and the surrounding area to oppose East Devon District Council’s regeneration proposals for the seafront.

In place of the Railway Carriage Café, the Harbour View Café, the Fun Park, DJ’s Café, Jungle Fun and the Crazy Golf Course there is set to be a multi-screen cinema, an outdoor water splash zone and an adventure golf park along with a seafront restaurant, ground floor cafes with outside seating in the open space areas and a ground floor retail area.

East Devon District Council (EDDC) are behind the development which will see Moirai Capital Investments of Bournemouth putting forward proposals to “breathe new life into the nine–acre council-owned seafront site at Queen’s Drive with a range of exciting leisure facilities.”

Some of Exmouth’s town councillors have expressed reservations when the plans were originally put forward and the traders whose businesses would be demolished are equally concerned. The town council refused to back the scheme in 2013 when it first came up, while earlier this year Dawn Hirst of the Harbour View Café and Chris Wright of the Fun Park both demanded answers to the question mark hanging over their businesses.

Other residents have hit out at the plans with the ‘Save Exmouth Seafront’ group gathering public opinion during the last few weeks through its Seafront Survey, which will be analysed after the closing date of 5 September, with results presented to the Town and District Councils.

Chairperson Roger Thomas says “The change from a well known and much used leisure area, loved both by residents and holiday makers to one of a commercial and residential nature is not an appropriate development for this part of Exmouth seafront, which is a unique asset and should be preserved as such.” Adding: “We are determined to oppose any such development to protect the seafront.”

The new group will hold a public meeting in the near future to open up the discussion and to consider future actions.

A planning application for the developmentwill be submitted later this year. EDDC said that the existing tenants on the Queen's Drive site have been informed of the news and can trade until September 30 when work will commence shortly afterwards.


Action group launched to ‘save Exmouth seafront’ from £18m development | Exeter Express and Echo
“Save Exmouth Seafront” group launches | East Devon Watch

To complete the survey by 5th September:
The Splash- Exmouth Seafront Survey

Here are the proposals from the District Council:
Regeneration projects in Exmouth - East Devon
Exmouth vision - East Devon
Exmouth Masterplan - East Devon
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Sunday 30 August 2015

From the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary......... ..... to the Lyme Bay Marine Conservation Zone

Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall has fronted the BBC's series on the UK's ocean wildlife:

He's now in California:



And the footage has been spectacular:

The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary is the largest in the United States:


Sanc0815 - Flickr - NOAA Photo Library.jpg
Big Sur coastline looking north to Bixby Canyon Bridge. Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary.
Map showing the location of Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary
Map of the sanctuary




Welcome to Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary! One of our nation's most spectacular marine protected areas, Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary offers some of the best wildlife viewing in the world! This "Serengeti of the Sea" stretches along the central coast from San Francisco to Cambria and includes pristine beaches, jewel-like tide pools, lush kelp forests, steep canyons and an offshore seamount teeming with life—from tiny shrimp to giant blue whales. The National Marine Sanctuary System promotes environmental protection, stewardship and ocean research. We invite you to explore and help protect this national undersea treasure.


Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall has also been campaigning for Marine Conservation Zones along the UK's coasts:

Lyme Bay has only two small MCZs:

Sustainable fishing is practiced in the Bay:

However, the protection actually given is limited:

Meanwhile, there has been pressure on the UK government to protect the waters around its overseas territories:

At the stroke of a pen Britain can save our waters

Conservationists call for the creation of some of the largest marine reserves in the world

Our precious oceans are under severe threat. By polluting our waters, and plundering our marine resources through unsustainable and often illegal fishing, humanity is causing irreparable harm to aquatic life.
What can we do to make a difference? The answer lies close to home. By creating marine reserves in some of our most environmentally significant waters we can do a huge amount to save unique marine environments from extinction.


Ultimately, it's a matter of winning over the human population:
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Freedom of Information and local government >>> >>> >>> persistence pays

It really does seem that local government is not keen on ready access to information:
Futures Forum: Freedom of Information and local government

And it really does seem that the only way to challenge this reluctance is persistence - or, as some have it - 'obsession':

Welsh ministers have claimed that the interest in openness is “an unhealthy obsession” and a blogger in Carmarthenshire was arrested and handcuffed by the police for filming a council meeting.
Futures Forum: Concerns about transparency and lobbying continue in East Devon: pt 2

Although it could be said that it is local government which is 'obsessive':

‘The relocation proposals put forward by East Devon District Council have frustrated and angered residents of the District. The process has been mishandled from the outset, beset by errors, poor decision-making and an obsession with secrecy.
Futures Forum: Knowle relocation project: and the longer-term demise of district councils... part ten: "EDDC is probably finished and long term decisions concerning the future of the Knowle are best left to the successor authorities."

It appears that some parts of the country are more 'obsessive' than others.

Oxford, for example:
Futures Forum: Knowle relocation project >>> and rational ignorance


Persistence pays for a West Way campaigner as council is ordered to release info

Information: Dr Mary Gill outside Elms Parade in Botley

Information: Dr Mary Gill outside Elms Parade in Botley
Reported by Callum Keown
Published  / News 
COUNCIL leader Matthew Barber yesterday said decisions over the failed £100 million West Way scheme were made “in good faith”.
But he admitted things could have been “done better on all sides” after an 18-month battle over information relating to the redevelopment.
A second attempt at plans for West Way shopping centre is being put forward but West Way Community Concern chairman Chris Church has said trusting the council could be a major obstacle.
Vale of White Horse District Council appealed against a decision to release important documents regarding its awarding of a contract to Doric Properties to develop the site.
But a tribunal found that the documents needed to be released to restore trust and transparency.
Mr Church said: “They should have released the information in the first place even if it was going to embarrass them.”
New leaders of the scheme, Mace, will put forward new proposals based on a framework being drawn up for the council.
The public will be asked their views on the sort of development they’d like to see in West Way.
Mr Church said: “If the council wants to work with the community it will need to come up with a planning document that reflects local needs.”
Council leader Matthew Barber yesterday said the council was acting in the peoples’ interest.
Mr Barber said: “Part of the council’s responsibility is to manage its assets to achieve best value for the benefit of the whole community of the Vale.
“We were approached with a commercial offer that, after careful consideration we concluded was worth accepting as it generated a significant receipt that we could use to fund key projects across the Vale and that also provided for the much-needed redevelopment of Botley.”
Mr Barber said that professional advice from DTZ was outdated and Doric amended its offer and addressed concerns before the council reached its decision.
The Conservative leader said: “We made the decisions in good faith at the time believing them to be in the best interests of the local community.
He added: “While I will happily admit things could have been done better on all sides, I maintain that the council acted in the best interest of the community and cannot take the blame for the details of the scheme.”
Mr Barber remained positive that relations and trust would be resolved moving forward.
He said: “Huge steps have already been taken to restore trust in the proceedings.
“Ahead of this year’s elections we secured cross-party community support to bring for the extension to the contract to bring forward a revised scheme.
“Since then work has continued in a much more collaborative fashion.”
THE LETTERS
Vale of White Horse District Council was advised in 2012 that the contract was a risk because Doric Properties had not been engaged with any supermarkets. 
The Oxford Mail has seen letters from several major supermarkets from November and December 2014 which appear to support the concerns:
* Doric said it was in discussions with potential supermarkets back in October 2014.
* Aldi – confirmed it was not involved
* Waitrose – Already had approval for Botley Road store expected to open in the autumn
* Tesco – No interest in the development
* Sainsbury’s – Approached by Doric, carried out an appraisal but decided it would not pursue
* Asda – Aware of the proposal but decided not to pursue the opportunity
* Morrisons – Not involved with the scheme
* Marks & Spencer – Never considered the scheme as the store would be 10 times that of their other food stores
* Lidl – Has a requirement for additional Oxford stores but West Way scheme was too big
THE BIDDERS
The sale agreement was on the condition of a supermarket being on board. 
Four of the unsuccessful bidders for the original site – just West Way shopping centre – included a food store as a partner.
* Bride Hall Developments with Asda Stores
* Mark Liell & Son LLP with Tesco
* Mentor Property with Sainsbury’s
* Richard Holmes Propert Consultants with Mid-Counties Co-op
* Angle Property
* Brett Chambers with ING Real Estate Development / Peverell Securities LTD
* Hill Street Holdings
* Lyndon Yeomans Property Consultants with Salmon Harvester
* New River
* PLK Properties
* Wellbeck Land
The documents revealed the council intended to accept a £16 million bid from Bride Hall and Asda before Doric’s proposals for a larger site – adding on Elms Parade, Field House sheltered housing and the vicarage.
TIMELINE
October 2013: Dr Gill submits a Freedom of Information request to find out why Doric Properties was awarded the contract for the proposed £100m centre.
But the council refused to reveal all the information requested.
November 2013: The council reveals documents on the bid, the criteria for selection of the successful bidder, the number of organisations expressing an interest in bidding, and the number of organisations which bid.
But it refused to release the names of the companies which submitted a bid and minutes of meetings and correspondence regarding the decision to award the contract to Doric.
September 2014: The Information Commissioner’s Office, which oversees FoI requests, sided with Dr Gill on appeal, ruling that the council should reveal the names of bidders, and the minutes of meetings and correspondence.
The council then agreed to release the names of unsuccessful bidders but still refused to release information pertaining to their decision and appealed to the tribunal. 
In the run up to the hearing on March 31 Vale council released a flurry of redacted documents and minutes.
June 12: After the tribunal and following the decision at the end of June it released more information and was given 35 days to make more information available by August 13. 



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Persistence pays for a West Way campaigner as council is ordered to release info (From The Oxford Times)
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Freedom of Information and local government

There have been several important FOI cases of late - covering a vast array of public policy, from local to national government:
‘Something is seriously wrong here’ - bailiffs used 21,000 times by councils in Norfolk in last year - Politics - Eastern Daily Press
Special report: councils in Worcestershire refer 10,000 unpaid debts to bailiffs in one year (From Worcester News)
And:
Councillor council tax arrears: MP refuses to investigate allegations of cover-up in Redcar (From The Northern Echo)
And:
Damp in social housing blamed on 'inappropriate' insulation - BBC News
And:
Local authorities across Britain spent millions monitoring Twitter for mentions | Daily Mail Online
And:
DWP Block Release Of Figures On Number Of People Dying After Benefits Stopped
Government's benefit tests under scrutiny as thousands die after being passed 'fit to work' - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

Meanwhile, the government - and local authorities - seem keen to reduce the impact of the FOI Act:
Futures Forum: The Freedom of Information Act and East Devon >>> the story continues
Futures Forum: Knowle relocation project: and the cost of FOI requests

As pointed out by the East Devon Watch blog
Freedom of Information: Former Labour Home Secretary branded “establishment stooge” | East Devon Watch

... there are unsavory goings-on vis-a-vis the composition of the group set up to reconsider the Act:
Labour accuses Jack Straw of conniving with Tories to dismantle Freedom of Information Act - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

This is the take from the Daily Mail earlier this week:

Straw 'helping to curb freedom of information': Labour accuses former Home Secretary of working with the Tories to dismantle the Act

  • A panel is reviewing if Freedom of Information Act is ‘working effectively’
  • Ministers claimed it made officials 'less candid' for fear they'll be published
  • Party sources claim Jack Straw was asked not to join but did so anyway
  • Labour fear the  panel is a Tory attempt to restrict the scope of the law
Labour have accused Jack Straw of working with the Tories to dismantle the Freedom of Information Act, used to expose Government scandals.
A panel of former ministers and civil servants is reviewing the Act, which helped uncover the MP’s expenses scandals and other revelations about waste and incompetence.
But party sources claim Mr Straw, the former home secretary, had been asked not to join the five-strong committee yet he insisted on doing so anyway – even if it had to be in a ‘personal capacity’.
Labour have accused Jack Straw of working with the Tories to dismantle the Freedom of Information Act, used to expose Government scandals
Labour have accused Jack Straw of working with the Tories to dismantle the Freedom of Information Act, used to expose Government scandals
It is understood that the Labour’s acting leader Harriet Harman and shadow justice secretary Lord Falconer made it clear to Mr Straw that they would prefer him to not to participate.
Labour frontbenchers fear that the panel is an attempt by the Conservatives to restrict the scope of the law, and make the job of the Opposition more difficult.
A senior party source told the Independent: ‘It was made very clear to Jack that it was not a great thing for him to do and that it would be much better if he did not participate.
‘But, for whatever reason, he decided to go ahead. Frankly, that is not massively helpful for the party. We are very clear that he is not representing us and is purely there in a personal capacity.’
At present, anyone can ask for information so long as finding it does not cost more than £600 in the case of a government department, or £450 for another public body.
The Commission claims to be looking at whether the Act is ‘working effectively’ and whether there needs to be a ‘safe space’ for communications between officials.

Labour’s acting leader Harriet Harman and shadow justice secretary Lord Falconer made it clear to Mr Straw that they would prefer him to not to participate
Labour’s acting leader Harriet Harman and shadow justice secretary Lord Falconer made it clear to Mr Straw that they would prefer him to not to participate
Last month, the most senior civil servant Sir Jeremy Heywood claimed the Act was making officials ‘less candid’ with ministers in their advice - for fear it would be made public.
But Mr Straw has called for the laws to be reined in. As home secretary in 2000, he passed the law, but said in 2012 that he now believes it has made ministers and civil servants reluctant to put their deliberations on paper in case they are published.
Before the election, Tory ministers proposed limiting FOI. When the review was launched, the Cabinet Office minister Matthew Hancock insisted it had cross-party support with Labour being represented by Mr Straw and Lord Carlile representing the Liberal Democrats.
But senior Labour MP Jon Trickett, said: ‘It does look like an Establishment stitch-up to try to attack the principles of the Freedom of Information Act. If the report comes out recommending watering down the legislation it is not something I would support.’
Campaigners have warned that Government departments and quangos would be given wide powers to turn down requests for information, if the law is reviewed.
Maurice Frankel, director of the Campaign for Freedom of Information said: ‘This shows that it is not a cross-party inquiry, as the Government has attempted to present it, as Jack Straw doesn’t represent the Labour party. Jack Straw has publicly called for exemptions to the law. These would make things more difficult not just for the Opposition, but everybody apart from government.’
FOI was also the source of the revelations from Prince Charles’s ‘spider letters’ to Government - covering topics such as homeopathy and military helicopters in Iraq. The panel will publish its findings by the end of November.  

Jack Straw 'helping Tories to curb freedom of information' act says Labour | Daily Mail Online

The discomfort local councils have with the FOI regime is long and deep.

These reports are from 2012:
Why are councils spinning against freedom of information? | Local Leaders Network | The Guardian
Freedom of Information requests 'puts strain on councils' - BBC News

And yet central government claims it is pushing local councils to be more 'transparent':
Local council transparency and accountability - GOV.UK

Meanwhile, on the other side of the same coin, there is increasing concern about the 'surveillance state' - with a new series launched by Channel Four:

One surveillance camera for every 11 people in Britain, says CCTV survey

Can anyone escape Britain's surveillance state? - Telegraph

The programme submitted 800 Freedom of Information requests to local authorities to build a map of the national network of CCTV cameras.

Hunted: Channel 4 to test 'surveillance Britain' by taking Big Brother to sinister new lengths - News - TV & Radio - The Independent

Local councils have been using powers to 'snoop' on citizens - as revealed in recent FOI requests:
Council uses spy laws to SNOOP on Dover residents | Dover Express
Yorkshire council used spying powers designed to catch terrorists to target benefit fraudsters - Yorkshire Post

Meanwhile, local councils have been 'losing' confidential data at an alarming rate:



Big Brother Watch
Councils losing personal data four times a day including medical records | Daily Mail Online
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Saturday 29 August 2015

Climate change: 2015 is the 'hottest year on record'

The picture on climate science has never been clearer:
Climate change: A 'pause' in global warming? Not on this evidence - Comment - Voices - The Independent
Nasa says sea levels have risen faster than thought due to climate change - Climate Change - Environment - The Independent

This is today's front page from the Independent:


















Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say

Exclusive: Findings make a nonsense of claims of a 'pause' in global warming

STEVE CONNOR SCIENCE EDITOR
Saturday 29 August 2015

Climate scientists are predicting that 2015 will be the hottest year on record “by a mile”, with the increase in worldwide average temperatures dramatically undermining the idea that global warming has stopped – as some climate-change sceptics claim.

Even though there are still several months left in the year to gather temperature readings from around the world, climate researchers believe nothing short of a Krakatoa-sized volcanic eruption that cuts out sunlight for months on end can now stop last year’s record being beaten.

It is rare for climate experts to make such a bold prediction so soon in the year, but they believe that a surge in ocean temperatures in particular now makes it almost inevitable that 2015 will turn out to be the hottest year globally since instruments were first used to gather readings more than 130 years ago.

The average temperature increase will be so much higher than the previous record, set in 2014, that it should melt away any remaining arguments about the so-called “pause” in global warming, which many climate sceptics have promoted as an argument against action on climate change.

Green Park, London

It will mean that the three warmest years since records began in 1880 – 2015, 2014 and 2010 – happened in the past five years, and nine out of the 10 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century. It demonstrates that global warming is getting worse and underlines the importance of the international meeting in Paris in December to discuss a new legally binding agreement on climate change.

Temperature data on land and sea gathered around the world by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) and the UK Met Office all points to a significant increase in global average temperatures this year, both on land and sea.

Egyptian boys in Marsa Matruh (EPA)

“It’s a sure thing. If you want a number, I would say about 99 per cent [certain],” said Professor James Hansen, a veteran climate researcher at Columbia University in New York and former director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “A huge volcano could have an effect, but it had better be Krakatoa-size or bigger and occur within the next month or so if it is to have much effect on 2015’s global temperature,” Professor Hansen told The Independent.

READ MORE: 
JULY WAS THE EARTH'S HOTTEST MONTH ON RECORD
FOUR CHARTS THAT SHOW WHY WE SHOULD WORRY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
POLAR BEARS WILL DIE OUT 'IF GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT REVERSED'


Other scientists agree that the scene is now set for another record hot year that breaks last year’s high by a significant amount – as much as 0.1C higher than the 2014 annual average temperature record of 14.57C. 2015 is currently on track to hit 14.68C.

Visitors crowd at Chinese Sea of Death tourist resort in Daying County to escape high temperatures

“It’s going to be so far ahead of the other record year that it’s going to be beyond the error range,” said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich.

“What’s important is not so much the land but the ocean data. The oceans have really picked up in the last 12 months or so,” Professor Jones said. In addition to the temperature increase attributed to the burning of fossil fuels, scientists are also recording a strengthening of El Niño, the current in the Pacific Ocean that causes sea-surface temperatures to rise.

A giant panda puts itself on a huge ice cube to cool off during the heat wave in Wuhan, China (AFP)

Normally when global average temperature records are broken, it is by a tiny fraction of a degree – about 0.01C or 0.02C. However, this year the record is likely to be broken by 10 times this margin, said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist at Noaa.

“I would expect that we could break the record by close to 0.1C. That’s the range we’re in now. It’s higher than we typically see when we break a record, where we see a hundredth or two-hundredths of a degree. So this is quite a large margin,” Dr Blunden said.

Professor Jones said that the 1998 temperature record, which occurred during an exceptionally strong El Niño, was about 0.1C higher than the then previous record year.

“When we looked back over previous records, if something was 0.1C above the previous record it was the warmest year by a mile,” Professor Jones said.

Children cool off as they play under a fountain next to the Manzanares river on July 21, 2015 in Madrid, Spain (Getty)

“If this was to carry on for the rest of the year there is no way that this would not be the warmest year, and the reason it’s going to continue is because there is an El Niño event going on and it’s getting stronger all the time,” he said.

“It also means that next year will have a head start as well, if the El Niño event goes on to the start of the new year, because of temperatures lagging the El-Niño effect by about six months. “So you can’t really have a pause [in global warming] with the three warmest years at the end of the record,” he added.


Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say - Climate Change - Environment - The Independent

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